calculated risk

noun

1. a chance of failure, the probability of which is estimated before some action is undertaken.

Idioms and Phrases

A chance taken after careful estimation of the probable outcome, as in Taking their dispute to arbitration was definitely a calculated risk . This term uses calculated in the sense of “planned with forethought,” a usage from the mid-1800s. Its pairing with risk dates from World War II, when the chances for losing bombers were taken into account before a bombing mission was sent out. After the war the term was transferred to other undertakings where taking a chance to succeed had to be weighed against the costs of failure.

Example Sentences

"It seems to me that it wasn't a complete secret. It was probably a calculated risk," she says, adding the due diligence process "depends on the questions you ask".

From BBC

“Combs and his attorney must have known that Judge Anzalone had deemed Derrick Lee Cardello-Smith’s service to be proper. I can only conclude that they took a calculated risk by refusing to respond to that service.”

From Los Angeles Times

And while her selection of Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as a running mate was a huge, calculated risk, the response among Democrats has been extremely positive.

From Slate

Or maybe he’ll be a pawn in a scheme — a calculated risk in a poorly regarded draft.

From Los Angeles Times

Eisen said it’s a “calculated risk” that Trump could make to try and push Cohen into losing his temper on the stand.

From Salon